Understanding Your Chances in Life: Luck, Probability and Better Bets

Some people seem to get all the breaks. Others work hard and still struggle. How much of life is effort, and how much is chance? This page originally hosted a guest post on understanding your chances. Here's our own look at luck, probability and how to make better bets.

Luck is real

It's uncomfortable to admit, but chance plays a large role in life outcomes: where and when you were born, your health, the people you happen to meet, the timing of opportunities. Successful people sometimes underestimate the role of luck in their success, and struggling people sometimes underestimate the role of bad luck in their struggles.

Recognising luck can make you more humble about success and more compassionate about failure, including your own.

We misjudge probability

Our minds aren't naturally good at probability. In a landmark 1974 paper, psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman described several mental shortcuts, or heuristics, that lead to predictable errors:

Availability: we judge how likely something is by how easily examples come to mind. Vivid news stories make rare events, such as plane crashes, seem more common than they are.
Representativeness: we judge probability by how much something resembles a stereotype, ignoring base rates.
Anchoring: we're influenced by initial numbers, even irrelevant ones.

Being aware of these biases helps you make more realistic judgements.

Can you make your own luck?

Psychologist Richard Wiseman studied people who described themselves as lucky or unlucky. In his research, self-described lucky people tended to be more open to new experiences, more relaxed, more likely to notice opportunities and more resilient after setbacks. In one well-known experiment, he asked participants to count photographs in a newspaper; many self-described unlucky people missed a large message on an inside page telling them they could stop counting.

The research has limits, but the practical lessons are reasonable.

Ways to improve your chances

Take more shots. If any single attempt has a low chance of success, such as job applications, creative submissions or business pitches, more attempts improve your overall odds.

Limit the downside. Make each attempt small and affordable, so failures don't sink you. Test ideas cheaply before betting big.

Stay open. Talk to new people, try new things, say yes to invitations. Opportunities often come from unexpected places. Our article on help coming from anywhere explores this.

Build skills that compound. Skills, relationships and reputation make it more likely you'll be ready when luck strikes.

Be persistent, but adaptive. Keep going, but learn from each attempt and adjust.

Judge the process, not just the outcome

A good decision can lead to a bad outcome because of bad luck, and a bad decision can turn out well because of good luck. When reviewing your choices, ask: did I make a sensible decision with the information I had? This helps you learn the right lessons and avoid beating yourself up over chance.

Accept what you can't control

Some things are simply out of your hands. Focusing on what you can control, such as your effort, preparation, attitude and choices, reduces anxiety and makes the most of whatever luck comes your way.

Try this

Think of one goal where you've been waiting for a lucky break. List three ways you could take more small shots, one way to limit the downside of each and one new place you could look for opportunities.